Five games into the 2026-27 NHL regular season, the San Jose Sharks find themselves sitting on a 3-2-0 record. But there is a massive catch: all three of their victories have come in three-on-three overtime. In Episode 299 of The Fin Factor, Paul and Aaron evaluate whether this young team is getting purely lucky in extra time or if their high-octane offense is proving they are truly legitimate playoff contenders.
The hosts recap Darnell Nurse’s thrilling OT winner in St. Louis, analyze Will Smith’s performance at top-line center without Macklin Celebrini, breakdown a hard-fought 3-1 loss to Edmonton, and review the brand-new line combinations tested at practice.
Game 1: Darnell Nurse Seals the OT Win in St. Louis (3-2 OTW)
The Sharks headed to St. Louis without Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli, Colin Graff, and Darnell Nurse on the ice. Despite trailing throughout the entire contest, the Sharks clawed their way back to force overtime.
- The Nurse Heroics: Fresh off the bench, Darnell Nurse called for the puck on a late-shift change. 19-year-old rookie Ivar Stenberg cut into the zone, drew the defense, and delivered a tape-to-tape pass to Nurse, who buried his first goal in a Sharks uniform.
- Will Smith at 1C: With Celebrini sidelined, Will Smith was thrust into top-line center duties against Selke-caliber competition in Robert Thomas. Head coach Ryan Warsofsky commended Smith’s track back and reads.
- The Organist’s Revenge: Every time San Jose scored, the St. Louis organist trolled the team by playing “Power Bite”—the retired AI goal song from last season.
Game 2: Celebrini Returns, But Oilers Prevail (3-1 L)
Back home at SAP Center, Macklin Celebrini returned to the lineup after missing a game with a minor lower-body issue.
- Instant Impact: Fresh out of the penalty box, Celebrini teamed up with Michael Misa, who pinned the puck along the wall, scanned the ice, and fed Celebrini for a laser of a wrist shot.
- Alexander Wennberg vs. Connor McDavid: Head coach Ryan Warsofsky matched Alexander Wennberg directly against Connor McDavid. Wennberg won a staggering 7 of 8 faceoffs directly against McDavid and held the world’s best player to a single assist.
- Physicality Surges: Igor Chernyshov and Michael Misa continued their heavy physical forecheck, showing zero fear against a veteran Edmonton roster.
Analytics: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
Aaron delivers the numbers after five regular-season games:
- The Good: Yaroslav Askarov is proving dominant shorthanded, stopping 11 of 12 high-danger shots on the penalty kill (+1.89 GSAA). Darnell Nurse (22.25 mph) and Michael Misa (22.55 mph) rank among the fastest skaters at their positions.
- The Bad: The Chernyshov/Misa/Toffoli line is generating just 30.4% of expected goals 5v5. Additionally, the team ranks 29th in total power-play time drawn.
- The Ugly: Five-on-five expected goals remain a severe concern. The Sharks rank 32nd in high-danger chances generated 5v5 (5.4 per 60). Furthermore, Askarov is suffering a “mid-range leak,” allowing 5.5 goals above expected on mid-distance shots due to screen coverage.
Practice Shakes Up the Lines
Heading into “Frozen Frenzy” week, Coach Warsofsky shuffled the forward lines at practice:
- Line 1: Igor Chernyshov – Macklin Celebrini – Will Smith
- Line 2: Ivar Stenberg – Michael Misa – Kiefer Sherwood
- Line 3: Mason Marchment – Alexander Wennberg – Tyler Toffoli
- Line 4: Ty Dellandria – Zach Ostapchuk – Colin Graf
Paul and Aaron praise moving Stenberg onto an explosive line alongside Misa and Sherwood, while noting that Colin Graf’s temporary drop to the fourth line creates healthy internal competition.
